Hello Friends,

Welcome back to another weekly stock market analysis from Replete Equities.

The Indian stock market witnessed one of its weakest weeks in recent months as benchmark indices extended their losing streak amid rising geopolitical tensions, Brent crude oil moving close to $100 per barrel, persistent Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling, and disappointing earnings from some heavyweight banking stocks. The selling pressure pushed Nifty below the crucial 24,000 psychological level, while Bank Nifty emerged as the biggest laggard, signalling that bears continue to dominate the broader market.

Although the week ended on a weak note, the upcoming week is expected to be one of the most important trading weeks of the month. We have Nifty monthly expiry, the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting, a packed corporate earnings calendar, and continued uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices. All these events have the potential to significantly influence market sentiment and volatility.

One interesting observation from the derivatives market is that Max Pain remains at the 24,000 level, while the index closed around 23,767. Historically, expiry weeks often witness a pull towards the Max Pain level as option sellers attempt to maximize time decay. However, the market is also trading below the Gamma Exposure (GEX) Flip Level of 23,900, which means downside moves can accelerate if sellers continue to dominate.

In this article, we will analyze:

• Weekly Stock Market Review
• What Drove Markets This Week
• Nifty Outlook for Monday
• Bank Nifty Prediction
• Complete Option Chain Analysis
• FII & DII Activity
• Key Events for the Upcoming Week
• Stock Market Prediction for Monday

Let's begin.

Weekly Stock Market Review

Indian equity markets remained under pressure throughout the week as selling intensified across financials, IT, and large-cap stocks. The benchmark indices closed the week near their respective lows, reflecting cautious sentiment among traders and investors.

Weekly Performance

• Index: Weekly Close: Weekly Change
• Nifty 50: 23,767: −2.33%
• Bank Nifty: 56,694: −3.12%
• Sensex: 76,060: −2.68%

Nifty recorded its fourth consecutive losing session and slipped decisively below the important 24,000 mark. Throughout the week, every recovery attempt was met with fresh selling, indicating that market participants preferred reducing exposure rather than buying dips.

Bank Nifty remained the weakest performer among the benchmark indices. Weak earnings from private sector banks, especially increased provisioning by IndusInd Bank, triggered heavy selling in the banking pack. Since banking stocks carry significant weightage in the Nifty index, this weakness prevented any meaningful recovery.

Meanwhile, Sensex also closed below its recent consolidation range, highlighting that the correction was broad-based rather than limited to a handful of sectors.

Market breadth also deteriorated considerably, with declines comfortably outnumbering advances on most trading sessions, indicating that weakness extended beyond the frontline indices into the broader market.

Despite the correction, volatility remained relatively controlled. India VIX closed around 14.03, which is elevated compared to the previous week but still far from panic levels. This suggests that while traders are becoming cautious, the market has not yet entered a phase of capitulation.

What Drove Markets This Week?

Several domestic and global factors combined to create a risk-off environment throughout the week.

1. Brent Crude Oil Climbed Near $100

The biggest concern for Indian markets remains crude oil.

Brent crude moving close to the $100 per barrel mark has once again raised concerns regarding inflation, India's current account deficit, and the RBI's future monetary policy path. Since India imports a large portion of its crude oil requirement, sustained higher oil prices negatively impact corporate margins and macroeconomic stability.

Higher crude prices also make emerging markets relatively less attractive to global investors, especially when combined with a stronger US Dollar.

2. FIIs Continued Aggressive Selling

Foreign Institutional Investors remained consistent sellers during the week, withdrawing approximately ₹6,061 crore from the cash market.

The selling accelerated during the final two sessions, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting and increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

Interestingly, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) absorbed almost the entire selling by purchasing nearly ₹7,326 crore, preventing a much sharper correction.

However, one important observation is that July's DII buying pace has slowed compared to previous months. If FII selling continues while DII buying weakens further, markets could face additional downside pressure.

3. Banking Stocks Dragged the Market Lower

Bank Nifty underperformed largely because of weakness in private sector banks.

Disappointing earnings, higher provisioning requirements, and cautious management commentary resulted in aggressive profit booking across banking stocks.

Since financials account for a significant portion of benchmark indices, weakness in this sector amplified the broader market correction.

4. Geopolitical Tensions Increased Risk Aversion

Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia kept investors cautious throughout the week.

Apart from pushing crude oil prices higher, geopolitical uncertainty also encouraged global investors to reduce exposure towards risk assets, including emerging markets like India.

5. Global Markets Remained Weak

Weakness in US technology stocks, higher Treasury yields, and cautious expectations ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting created additional pressure on global equity markets.

Technology-heavy Nasdaq witnessed renewed selling after mixed earnings expectations from major US companies, further impacting sentiment across Asian markets.

What Traders Should Watch First on Monday

As we step into the new trading week, the market is entering one of the most event-heavy phases of the month. After four consecutive sessions of selling, traders will be closely watching whether buyers can defend the immediate support zone or if the correction extends further.

From a trader's perspective, there are five key factors that will determine the market direction on Monday.

1. Will Nifty Hold Above 23,750?

The 23,750–23,800 zone has now become the most important support area for Nifty.

Friday's close around 23,767 places the index exactly at this support. If buyers manage to defend this zone during the first half of Monday's session, we could witness short covering towards 23,900–24,000.

However, if Nifty slips below 23,750 with strong volumes, the probability of testing 23,600 increases significantly.

The first hour of trading will therefore be extremely important.

2. Can Bank Nifty Recover?

Bank Nifty has remained under pressure throughout the previous week.

Unless Bank Nifty reclaims 56,900, any rally should be viewed cautiously.

Private banking stocks continue to influence the broader index, and another weak opening in financials could drag both Nifty and Sensex lower.

3. Crude Oil Remains the Biggest Macro Risk

One of the biggest reasons behind last week's weakness was the sharp rise in Brent crude oil prices.

If crude remains elevated near $100 per barrel, sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals, logistics, and oil marketing companies may continue to face pressure.

On the other hand, any cooling in crude prices could provide immediate relief to Indian equities.

4. FII Activity Will Remain Critical

Foreign Institutional Investors have now built a meaningful bearish position in both the cash and derivatives markets.

Their positioning clearly suggests that global participants remain cautious ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting and continue to hedge downside risks.

Monday's institutional flow data will therefore provide valuable clues regarding whether FIIs continue selling or begin covering shorts ahead of expiry.

5. Monthly Expiry Begins

Although the monthly expiry falls on Tuesday, positioning generally starts from Monday itself.

Historically, expiry weeks often witness:

• Increased intraday volatility
• Sudden short-covering rallies
• Sharp reversals near major option strikes
• Faster option premium decay

This week's option chain suggests that 24,000 remains the strongest magnet for expiry, making Monday's price action particularly important.

Nifty Outlook – Key Support & Resistance

Nifty enters the new week with a cautious technical structure.

The index has now closed below the psychologically important 24,000 level while remaining beneath its short-term moving averages. Every attempt to move higher during the previous week was met with aggressive call writing, indicating that traders are still selling rallies rather than buying dips.

From a technical perspective, the market has entered an important decision zone.

Immediate Support Levels

• Support 1: 23,750
• Support 2: 23,600
• Major Positional Support: 23,070

The 23,750 region acted as immediate support on Friday.

If this level breaks decisively, Nifty could quickly move towards 23,600, where buyers are expected to defend aggressively.

A failure below 23,600 would expose the June swing low near 23,070, making it the next major positional support.

Resistance Levels

• Resistance 1: 24,000
• Resistance 2: 24,180

The biggest hurdle for bulls remains 24,000.

Interestingly, this level also coincides with the Maximum Pain strike in the option chain, making it technically and psychologically significant.

Only a sustained move above 24,000 can improve short-term sentiment and open the possibility of testing 24,180.

Until then, every rally should be treated cautiously.

Trend Analysis

The current trend remains bearish to neutral.

However, one encouraging factor is that India VIX has not exploded despite the correction.

This indicates that traders are hedging rather than panicking.

If buyers defend 23,750, a short-covering rally towards 24,000 cannot be ruled out.

But if 23,750 fails, momentum could accelerate on the downside due to dealer positioning below the GEX Flip Level.

Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday

Bank Nifty remained the weakest index throughout the previous week.

The banking index closed at approximately 56,694, losing over 3% during the week as heavy selling emerged in private banks following mixed earnings and increased provisioning concerns.

Technically, Bank Nifty continues to trade below its short-term trend indicators, suggesting that bears remain firmly in control.

Key Support Levels

• 56,334
• 56,077

The 56,300 zone will be the first level to watch on Monday.

If Bank Nifty slips below this support, the probability of testing 56,000 increases considerably.

Key Resistance Levels

• 56,890
• 57,188–57,250

The first sign of strength would only emerge if Bank Nifty manages to reclaim 56,900.

Until that happens, any bounce should be viewed as a pullback within an ongoing corrective trend.

Trading View

The banking sector will likely determine Monday's market direction.

If private banks continue to remain under pressure, Nifty may also struggle to recover.

However, if banking stocks stabilize after the recent correction, short covering could help both Bank Nifty and Nifty recover towards their immediate resistance levels.

Sensex Outlook

Sensex ended the week at 76,060, extending its losing streak alongside Nifty and Bank Nifty.

The index has now slipped below 76,400, indicating that sellers continue to dominate at higher levels.

Sensex Support Levels

• 76,120
• 75,849

Sensex Resistance Levels

• 76,695
• 76,998

The 76,000 mark now becomes an important psychological level.

Holding above this zone may encourage some bargain buying, while a decisive break could trigger another round of selling towards 75,800.

India VIX Analysis – Volatility is Rising

One of the biggest changes during the previous week came from the volatility index.

• Indicator: Value: Weekly Change
• India VIX: 14.03: +6.69%

A rising VIX accompanied by falling markets typically indicates that traders are purchasing protection through options.

This week's increase suggests that participants are becoming more cautious ahead of multiple market-moving events, including the Nifty monthly expiry, the US Federal Reserve meeting, and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Despite the increase, VIX is still well below the panic zone of 20.

This means the market is witnessing controlled fear, not panic selling.

For option traders, this has two important implications:

• Option premiums are becoming relatively expensive compared to last week.
• Intraday swings may become larger, requiring disciplined position sizing and proper hedging.

At Replete Equities, we believe rising volatility is not something to fear—it is something to prepare for. Traders with structured, hedged strategies often benefit from such environments, while unhedged directional positions tend to face greater risk.

What This Means for Monday

The market begins the week at a technically critical juncture.

• 23,750 is the line in the sand for Nifty.
• 24,000 remains the biggest hurdle and Max Pain level.
• 56,900 is the key recovery level for Bank Nifty.
• Rising VIX suggests traders should expect larger intraday moves.

Rather than predicting direction with certainty, Monday's session is likely to be about observing whether buyers can defend support or sellers tighten their grip ahead of expiry.

Why Option Chain Data Matters This Week

Price action tells us what the market has already done, but the Option Chain often provides clues about where market participants are positioning themselves next.

Professional traders closely monitor Open Interest (OI), Put-Call Ratio (PCR), Max Pain, and implied volatility because these metrics reveal how institutional participants are hedging and where option writers are willing to take risk.

With the Nifty Monthly Expiry scheduled for Tuesday, 28 July, the current option positioning becomes even more important. Expiry week generally sees aggressive adjustments by option writers, and these changes can significantly influence short-term price movements.

At Replete Equities, we don't rely on a single indicator. Instead, we combine Option Chain data, price action, institutional flows, and volatility analysis to understand the broader market structure.

This week, the derivatives data continues to suggest that option writers remain in control, while buyers need a decisive move above key resistance levels to shift the sentiment.

Option Chain Analysis & Market Sentiment

The latest Option Chain data presents a cautious picture for the Indian stock market heading into expiry week.

Although Nifty has corrected sharply, the derivatives market still shows aggressive call writing across multiple strikes, indicating that traders continue to sell rallies rather than positioning for an immediate breakout.

Let's break down the key observations.

Maximum Pain Remains at 24,000

One of the most important observations this week is that Maximum Pain is positioned at 24,000, while Nifty closed around 23,767.

Historically, expiry weeks often witness the index gravitating towards the Max Pain level as option sellers benefit from maximum premium decay.

This does not guarantee that Nifty will reach 24,000, but it does create a natural attraction toward that strike—provided buyers can defend the immediate support zones.

For traders, this means that a move back towards 24,000 remains possible if short covering emerges early in the week.

PCR Indicates Bears Still Hold the Advantage

Current derivative data shows:

• Indicator: Value
• PCR (Open Interest): 0.66
• PCR (Change in OI): 0.18

A PCR below 1 generally suggests that market participants are holding more Call Open Interest than Put Open Interest.

More importantly, the PCR based on Change in Open Interest is only 0.18, indicating that fresh positions during the week were overwhelmingly concentrated on the Call side.

In simple terms, traders continued writing Calls much more aggressively than Puts.

This reflects a market where participants expect rallies to face resistance rather than expecting an immediate upside breakout.

While the broader sentiment is not extremely bearish, it certainly remains bearish to neutral until stronger Put writing starts emerging.

Major Resistance Levels from the Option Chain

Option writers have built significant positions across higher strikes.

The most important resistance levels are:

24,000 CE

• Around 130.8 lakh Open Interest
• Highest concentration near the current market
• Also coincides with the Maximum Pain level

This makes 24,000 the single most important resistance for Monday and Tuesday's expiry.

Unless significant Call unwinding happens, Nifty may struggle to sustain above this level.

23,900 CE

Fresh Call writing of approximately 53 lakh contracts was observed at this strike.

This indicates that option sellers are actively defending the 23,900 region and currently expect the market to remain below it.

23,850 CE

Another round of aggressive Call additions was recorded near 23,850, reinforcing the resistance cluster immediately above Friday's closing level.

25,000 CE

The highest overall Open Interest remains at 25,000 CE, making it the broader positional ceiling for the current expiry cycle.

Although this strike is far from the current spot price, it highlights how little expectation traders currently have for a sharp upside move before expiry.

Major Support Levels from the Option Chain

On the Put side, option writers continue defending lower levels despite the recent correction.

23,800 PE

One of the most important observations this week is the fresh addition of nearly 26 lakh contracts at 23,800 PE.

This suggests that institutional participants still consider this area as the first line of defence.

As long as Nifty remains above this strike, buyers retain some control over the short-term structure.

23,500 PE

Another strong Put base has developed around 23,500, where fresh Put additions continue to support the market.

If Nifty breaks below 23,800, this becomes the next major support zone.

23,000 PE

The largest Put Open Interest remains at 23,000, with approximately 107 lakh contracts.

This represents the strongest institutional support for the current expiry.

Should the correction deepen during the week, this strike is likely to become the major battleground between buyers and sellers.

Gamma Exposure (GEX): The Hidden Risk This Week

One metric that many retail traders overlook is Gamma Exposure (GEX).

This week, the GEX Flip Level is positioned around 23,900.

Currently, Nifty is trading below this level.

Why is this important?

When the market trades below the GEX Flip Level, option dealers often need to hedge more aggressively as prices move. This hedging activity can amplify intraday swings instead of absorbing them.

In practical terms, that means:

• Sharp declines can accelerate more quickly.
• Sudden short-covering rallies can also become stronger.
• Intraday volatility is likely to increase, especially around expiry.

This is one of the reasons we continue to recommend disciplined risk management rather than chasing momentum during expiry week.

FII Derivatives Positioning

The derivatives data also reflects a cautious institutional stance.

Current positioning shows:

• Net Index Futures: –2,63,082 contracts
• Net Calls: –3,14,487 contracts
• Net Puts: +5,46,528 contracts

This combination clearly indicates that FIIs remain heavily hedged and continue to maintain a defensive outlook.

Rather than aggressively betting on a rally, institutions are still preparing for downside risks while keeping protection through Put positions.

Until we see meaningful unwinding of these bearish positions, traders should avoid assuming that every dip will immediately reverse.

FII & DII Activity: Domestic Buying Cushions Foreign Selling

Institutional activity remained one of the defining themes of the week.

While Foreign Institutional Investors continued to reduce exposure, Domestic Institutional Investors stepped in aggressively to absorb the selling pressure.

Weekly Institutional Flows

• Category: Weekly Flow
• FII: –₹6,061 Crore
• DII: +₹7,326 Crore

This near-perfect offset explains why the market corrected in a controlled manner instead of witnessing panic selling.

However, there is an important trend developing beneath the surface.

Although DIIs continue to support the market, their buying pace during July has been noticeably slower than previous months, partly due to capital being absorbed by ongoing IPOs and QIPs.

If foreign selling persists while domestic buying loses momentum, the market could become more vulnerable in the coming weeks.

Market Sentiment: What Is the Derivatives Market Saying?

Putting all the pieces together, the derivatives market currently suggests:

• ✅ Max Pain continues to pull prices toward 24,000.
• ✅ Strong Put writing is still protecting 23,800 and 23,500.
• ⚠️ Fresh Call writing above the market indicates sellers remain active.
• ⚠️ PCR continues to favour the bears.
• ⚠️ FIIs remain structurally defensive in both cash and derivatives.
• ⚠️ Trading below the GEX Flip Level increases the probability of larger intraday swings.

Our View

At Replete Equities, we believe the market is not in panic mode, but it is certainly not in a confirmed bullish phase either.

The coming sessions are likely to be driven less by optimism and more by positioning, expiry dynamics, and global macro events.

For traders, this means discipline matters more than prediction.

Rather than anticipating every move, focus on reacting to price around the key support and resistance zones. In an environment like this, preserving capital is just as important as generating returns.

Key Events That Could Move the Indian Stock Market This Week

The upcoming week is packed with major domestic and global events that are expected to influence market sentiment. Traders should stay prepared for higher-than-usual volatility, especially as multiple high-impact events coincide with the monthly expiry.

1. Nifty Monthly Expiry – Tuesday, 28 July

The biggest domestic event this week is the Nifty Monthly Expiry.

Expiry sessions are often characterized by sharp intraday swings, rapid option premium decay, and aggressive position adjustments by institutional traders. With Maximum Pain positioned at 24,000, traders should closely monitor whether the index gravitates toward this level or continues to remain below the 23,900 GEX Flip Level.

If buyers succeed in defending the 23,750–23,800 support zone on Monday, a short-covering move towards 24,000 cannot be ruled out. However, failure to hold support could accelerate selling pressure into expiry.

2. US Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting – 28–29 July

The global market's attention will remain on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.

While markets largely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will closely analyse the central bank's commentary on inflation, economic growth, and the future rate path.

Any hawkish surprise could strengthen the US Dollar, increase Treasury yields, and trigger further FII outflows from emerging markets like India.

Conversely, a balanced or dovish tone could improve global risk sentiment and provide temporary relief to equity markets.

3. Q1 FY27 Earnings Season

Corporate earnings will continue to remain a key driver of stock-specific action.

Several heavyweight companies are scheduled to announce their quarterly results, and management commentary on demand, margins, and future growth will be closely watched.

Strong earnings from market leaders could improve sentiment despite the ongoing macro uncertainty, while disappointing results may lead to sector-specific volatility.

4. Brent Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil remains one of the biggest external risks for Indian markets.

Brent trading close to $100 per barrel has already increased concerns around inflation, import costs, and India's current account deficit. Any further escalation in geopolitical tensions that pushes crude prices even higher could negatively impact market sentiment.

On the other hand, if crude cools below recent highs, it may provide meaningful support to equities and ease pressure on FIIs.

5. Global Economic Data

Apart from the FOMC meeting, traders should also monitor important US macroeconomic releases, including:

• US Durable Goods Orders
• US Consumer Confidence
• Ongoing US technology earnings

These events have the potential to influence global risk appetite, which often reflects in the opening sentiment of Indian markets.

Stock Market Prediction for Monday, 27 July 2026

After analysing the technical structure, option chain positioning, institutional activity, volatility trends, and global developments, our view for Monday remains cautiously bearish with a possibility of an expiry-driven recovery.

The market is currently standing at an important decision point.

On one hand, Nifty has slipped below the psychological 24,000 level and continues to trade beneath the 23,900 Gamma Exposure Flip Level, which keeps downside risks elevated.

On the other hand, Maximum Pain at 24,000, along with strong Put writing around 23,800, suggests that option sellers may attempt to pull prices back toward the 24,000 zone as expiry approaches.

The outcome will largely depend on whether buyers are able to defend the immediate support levels during Monday's session.

Nifty Prediction

• Immediate Support: 23,750
• Major Support: 23,600
• Positional Support: 23,070
• Immediate Resistance: 24,000
• Next Resistance: 24,180

As long as Nifty trades above 23,750, a recovery towards 23,900–24,000 remains possible.

However, a decisive break below 23,750 could quickly open the path towards 23,600, with 23,070 emerging as the next significant downside level.

Bank Nifty Prediction

Bank Nifty continues to show relative weakness.

The index needs to reclaim 56,900 to improve the short-term outlook. Until then, any bounce should be viewed cautiously.

Failure to hold 56,300 could invite another round of selling towards the lower support zone.

Our Trading View

At Replete Equities, we believe this is not the week to predict aggressively—it is the week to manage risk professionally.

Markets are entering a phase where multiple global and domestic events can trigger sharp moves in either direction. In such an environment, trading without proper risk management can become expensive.

Instead of trying to forecast every intraday swing, traders should focus on:

• Trading with predefined risk.
• Respecting key support and resistance levels.
• Avoiding emotional decisions during volatile sessions.
• Using hedged strategies wherever possible.
• Letting price confirm the direction before increasing exposure.

As always, our objective is not to predict every market move perfectly but to build a structured process that allows traders to survive uncertain markets and participate confidently when high-probability opportunities arise.

Final Verdict

The broader trend remains cautious, but the market is approaching an important technical and derivatives-based inflection point.

If buyers successfully defend 23,750 and Bank Nifty stabilises, an expiry-driven recovery toward 24,000 remains a realistic possibility.

However, if sellers push Nifty below 23,750, the correction may extend towards 23,600, while a deeper breakdown could expose the June lows near 23,070.

In our view, Monday's opening session will likely set the tone for the remainder of the expiry week.

Trade with discipline, stay patient, and always let the market confirm your bias before committing capital.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Is Monday expected to be bullish or bearish?

The short-term trend remains cautious. While technical indicators favour the bears, strong Put writing near 23,800 and Max Pain at 24,000 could support an expiry-driven bounce if key support levels hold.

What are the important support and resistance levels for Nifty?

Support: 23,750, 23,600, and 23,070.

Resistance: 24,000 and 24,180.

Why is Bank Nifty underperforming?

Bank Nifty has been weighed down by weakness in private banking stocks following mixed quarterly earnings and higher provisioning by some lenders. Until the index reclaims 56,900, the near-term structure remains weak.

Why is Option Chain analysis important during expiry week?

Option Chain data highlights where institutional participants are building positions. Metrics such as Open Interest, Max Pain, PCR, and Gamma Exposure help traders understand potential support, resistance, and areas where volatility may increase.

What are the biggest risks for the market this week?

The key risks include the Nifty monthly expiry, the US Federal Reserve meeting, elevated crude oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions, FII selling, and corporate earnings announcements.

Conclusion

The market has entered one of the most important weeks of the month. With expiry, global central bank decisions, and earnings all converging, volatility is expected to remain elevated.

While the recent correction has weakened sentiment, it has also brought the market close to technically important support levels. The behaviour of Nifty around 23,750 and Bank Nifty around 56,300 will be crucial in determining whether the market stabilises or extends its decline.

At Replete Equities, we believe successful trading is not about predicting every move—it's about following a disciplined process, managing risk effectively, and executing high-probability setups consistently.

Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the market reveal its next move.

Happy Trading!

Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information shared in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment or trading advice. The views expressed are based on technical analysis, derivatives data, and publicly available market information. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Please consult your financial advisor or a SEBI-registered investment professional before making any investment or trading decisions.