Replete Weekly

Weekly Market Review (16th October – 19th October 2017)

According to weekly numbers , This equity benchmark started the holiday-truncated week on Monday with heavy gains, as both the indices made fresh highs. However, after gaining a bullish momentum, the indices started consolidating; therefore, on Tuesday the Nifty ended almost flat while the Sensex ended in red.On Wednesday Nifty observed some heavy distribution as it gained one distribution day, while the Sensex also posted a loss of almost 25 points.

The Nifty started the week at 10,207.40 and traded in the range of 10,175.10-10,251.85. The index closed for the week at 10,210.85, up 0.42% from last week’s close. After opening at 32488.23, the Sensex gained 0.46% this week to settle at 32,584.35. The index traded in the range of 32,445.43-32699.86

This week, as the Nifty crossed its previous resistance level of 10,175 on Monday and went on to make a new all-time high, we changed the market status to Confirmed Uptrend. Talking about the distribution day, today, the Nifty added one distribution day, thus taking the distribution day count to four in both the indices.

Broader indices also extended their gains this week, as the Nifty Midcap and the Smallcap indices advanced 0.77 % and 1.13%, respectively.
In the Sectoral chart the Nifty Energy, Realty, and Metal were the top-most gainers for the week with gains of 3.04%, 1.91%, and 1.83%, respectively. On the losing side, the Nifty PSU Bank, Media, and the Private Bank were the top-three losers were with loses of 2.73%, 1.86%, and 1.80%, respectively.

*A Look Back at Samvat 2073

All is well that ends well

Samvat 2073 was quite an unusual period for the Indian equity market. While uncertainty is a given in the world of stock markets, India’s frontline indices had to deal with a lot of unpredictability due to a variety of domestic and geopolitical issues.

Despite the clouds of uncertainty looming over the Indian stock market, it turned out to be an inspiring journey in the end. The Indian market overcame the odds of Trump’s unexpected presidential win, Modi government’s demonetisation drive, GST disruption, India-China border stand-off, lower economic growth, and growing concerns of a war between the U.S. and North Korea, to emerge triumphant.

Largely driven by an upbeat investor sentiment and burgeoning domestic inflows, Sensex and Nifty posted impressive gains of 16.6% and 18.2%, respectively, in Samvat 2073. The broader indices not only joined the party but also outperformed key composites with Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap advancing 19.1% and 25.3%, respectively.

On the sectoral front, the metal, realty, and private bank stocks stole the show, while the pharma and PSU banking stocks performed poorly. All in all, it turned out to be a pretty profitable year for a majority of the sectors.

What’s in store for the Indian market?

Barring the demonetisation jolt in November 2016, the Indian stock market marched ahead without giving much heed to other issues. The 50-day moving average (red line in chart) provided crucial support throughout Nifty’s rally during Samvat 2073. While the index breached its 50-DMA on two occasions recently, it managed to retake the support line on both instances.

NIFTY50

With the key indices hovering near all-time highs, the Indian market is currently in a Confirmed Uptrend. Nevertheless, the distribution day count of four each on Nifty and Sensex should not be taken lightly. Investors would be better off to keep their buying decisions reserved to high-quality names only.

From here, the ongoing Q2 earnings season could play an important role in affecting the market direction. After a decent rally in Samvat 2073, the market could rest for a while before resuming its uptrend if earnings do not meet market expectations. However, a better-than-expected Q2 earnings season could push the market higher in the near future.

Despite a distribution day count of four on Nifty, the alarm bells have not started ringing yet and therefore, we advise investors to remain on the lookout for quality growth stocks. From a portfolio management perspective, consider selling stocks that are showing signs of weakness in the form of a 50- or 200-day moving average breach on high volume. Such stocks could go into a sideways mode and hence it would make sense to free up some capital and deploy it to better opportunities.*

Technical outlook for coming week:-

NSENIFTY close at 10146.55 on mahurat trading day after broke support of 10170. Due to expiry week and result session looking more volatile in coming sessions. we are holding our long position with a stop loss of 10000. The trend is UP until it is above 10000. So keep tracking with tight stop loss.

NSE NIFTY is long-term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 9,650.54 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 59.29 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 70.16 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 149.86, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 76.62. This value is in the overbought territory.

Weekly Pivot Point Resistance and Support

The first weekly resistance level is at 10,254.30 while the second resistance level at 10,341.15. The first weekly support level is at 10,018.20 while the second support level is at 9,868.95.

Additional information:-

Tomorrow’s projected High: 10,179.25, the projected Low:10,090.65. The top 21-day Bollinger band is at 10,352.15 while the bottom 21-day Bollinger band is at 9,741.99.

Some stocks for your portfolio:-

Zee Learn (NSE: ZEELEARN): CMP- 46.00

Zee Learn limited is a holding company. the company operates as AN education company, that offers education support services. Its segments include educational, that provides learning solutions and delivers training, and Construction and Leasing, which consists of constructing and leasing of properties for commercial use. it’s engaged in the operation of a series of K-12 schools and pre-schools. It acts as a consultant to local entrepreneurs wish to setup K-12 schools, under its brand, Mount Litera Zee schools, and provides education management and consultatory services. Mount Litera zee school is a chain of schools with over 103 schools in approximately 98 cities. It additionally runs a chain of pre-schools, Kidzee, with over 1,500 pre-schools in more or less 550 cities. Its offerings conjointly include zee Institute of Media Arts, which is a television and film training institute, and zee Institute of creative Art, that is a classical and digital animation training academy.

Zee Learn posted its Q3 FY17 results which were better than expected street estimates.
Company’s revenues came in at Rs 25.48 crore posting a de-growth of 24.1% qoq and a growth of 14.3% yoy.
Company’s EBITDA came in at Rs 8.94 crore dropping 23.7% QoQ, however, advancing 38th yoy. This was irrespective of 24.5% drop in the overall expenses of the company in Q3FY17 as compared to the previous quarter.
Company’s net profit stood at Rs 6.08 crore as against Rs 7.59 crore during the last quarter and Rs 2.27 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of previous year. Company’s other income came in at Rs 1.67 crore, in line with the previous quarter, however, grew 108.8% from the same quarter of last year.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 61.5 % while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 22.19 % and 7.73 % respectively.

Short-term target is 52. but you can hold it for long term too.

Technical summary:-

ZEELEARN is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 43.73 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 59.58 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 75.18 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 1.58, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 34.24. This value is in the neutral territory.

We have detected an Isolated Low at 45.00 one ago, this is usually a bullish sign that is not to be used alone!

*Source MarketSmith India. As we are associate partner with MARKETSMITH INDIA need any help or wanted to know latest offers contact us.

DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views posted here only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading

 

 

About Sachin Siwal

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