Stock Market Prediction for Monday (Feb 16, 2026) | Nifty, Bank Nifty Levels & Market Insights

Hello friends,

We’ve just finished a sharp and emotionally charged week in the Indian stock market. After making record highs recently, Nifty slipped below key support zones on Friday, while Bank Nifty also corrected but is still holding relatively higher ground. In this article, we’ll walk through this week’s moves, key levels, option signals, flows, and an educational stock market prediction for Monday in a simple format.

Weekly Stock Market Review

Indian Stock Market Today – How This Week Played Out

Nifty 50:

Nifty spent most of the week near the upper band of its recent range but finally gave a strong negative signal on Friday.

After closing around 25,807 on Thursday, the index opened lower on Friday near 25,571, hit a high of about 25,630, and then closed sharply weaker around 25,471.

That’s a fall of more than 300 points from Tuesday’s close of near 25,997, clearly showing that sellers have become more active at higher levels.

The weekly structure now looks like a failed attempt to sustain above 26,000, followed by profit‑booking and some panic selling, especially in large IT and metal names.

Bank Nifty (Nifty Bank):

Bank Nifty also opened with a gap down on Friday at around 60,504, climbed to nearly 60,622, and finally closed near 60,186.

The latest available index value is about 60,186–60,200. Compared to Nifty, Bank Nifty has held up slightly better in recent weeks, even though Friday’s candle was also bearish with selling from higher levels.

Broader Market:

Sensex fell more than 1,000 points on Friday, and Nifty slipped below 25,500, showing broad‑based pressure across sectors. The advance‑decline ratio and intraday data highlight that declines outnumbered advances, which is typical when markets correct after a strong rally.

What Moved the Market This Week

• Profit‑booking near highs: Nifty had rallied steadily in the last few weeks, so the breakdown from 25,800–26,000 triggered long unwinding.
• Sector pressure: Infosys and Hindalco saw steep cuts on Friday, dragging indices lower, while only a few heavyweights like Bajaj Finance and Eicher Motors managed to stay in the green.
• Mixed global cues: Global markets were not in full risk‑on mode, which added to the cautious mood in India.

Key Technical Levels & Market Bias for the Coming Week

Using this week’s highs, lows, and Friday’s close as reference, here are the key zones for Monday.

Nifty Outlook – Key Zones

• Immediate support: Friday’s post‑market analysis highlights 25,400 as the first important support; below that, the next meaningful zone lies around 25,250–25,200.
• Immediate resistance: Any bounce is likely to face resistance near 25,550 - 25,650, with a stronger ceiling near 25,800.

Nifty has formed a bearish candle with an upper shadow on Friday, which means buyers tried to push the index up, but sellers pushed it back down strongly. For Monday, the 25,400–25,550 band will act like the main “battlefield” between bulls and bears.​

Bank Nifty Prediction – Key Zones

• Immediate support: Bank Nifty’s intraday support on Friday was seen around 60,400–60,380, but it finally closed slightly below that zone, near 60,186. For Monday, 60,000 becomes the first big level to watch, followed by 59,500 as a deeper support.
• Immediate resistance: On the upside, 60,600–60,700 remains the near‑term resistance zone mentioned in forecasts, and 61,000 is the next psychological level.

Bank Nifty is still above the stronger medium‑term supports, but Friday’s close shows that bulls are losing some momentum in the very short term.

Sector & Stock Performance Snapshot

Stronger Names

• Top Nifty gainers on Friday included Bajaj Finance, Eicher Motors, SBI Life, SBI, Cipla and Apollo Hospitals, with Bajaj Finance up over 2.5% and Eicher Motors gaining more than 1.5%. These names helped limit more serious damage in the index.​

Weak Spots

• Reality and Metals: Hindalco dropped nearly 6%, and Hindunilvr fell nearly 4%, putting strong downside pressure on Nifty.
• Broad indices: Sensex fell more than 1,000 points, and Nifty broke below 25,500, indicating weakness across many sectors, not just one pocket.​

The pattern is typical of a “risk‑off” day where defensives and selected quality names hold relatively better while high‑beta and global‑sensitive stocks fall harder.

Institutional Activity Overview

Friends, institutional flows are like the big players deciding whether to push the market up or pull it back. This week, we saw a clear tug-of-war, with FIIs turning sellers and DIIs stepping up as the reliable support system. Let’s dive into the exact numbers from NSE data to understand what’s happening.

FIIs

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were aggressive net sellers on Friday, offloading equities worth ₹7,430.84 crore net (Buy: ₹13,356.75 Cr, Sell: ₹20,787.59 Cr) in the capital market segment. This sharp selling contributed to the day's downside pressure on Nifty and broader indices.​

Looking at the full week (Feb 9–13), FII activity was mixed but tilted towards profit-taking:

February Month-to-Date (MTD): FIIs remain net buyers at ₹6,022 Cr (Gross Buy: ₹160,824 Cr, Gross Sell: ₹154,803 Cr), but the Friday selloff shows volatility and caution amid global weakness. This pattern suggests FIIs are trimming positions near highs rather than adding aggressively.​

DIIs

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), including mutual funds, insurance companies, and banks, played the hero role again. On Friday, they net bought ₹5,799 Cr (Buy: ₹19,193 Cr, Sell: ₹13,395 Cr), providing crucial support that prevented a deeper market slide.​

February MTD: DIIs are net buyers at ₹4,222 Cr (Gross Buy: ₹168,584 Cr, Gross Sell: ₹164,362 Cr), continuing their streak of absorbing FII selling and stabilizing the market. SIP inflows and long-only mandates are key drivers here.​

Volatility (India VIX)

India VIX spiked sharply on Friday amid the selloff, closing around 12.45–13.05 (up ~6–15% from previous close of 11.73), with intraday highs touching 13.05 and lows at 10.96. This rise reflects heightened fear and expected swings over the next 30 days.

• 52-week range: High 23.19, Low 8.72​
• Implication: Higher VIX makes option premiums richer, favouring hedged strategies like spreads or iron condors over naked directional bets. In such environments, traders often focus on selling volatility with protection rather than predicting direction.

Key Insight: The FII sell + DII buy dynamic kept losses contained (Nifty down ~1.3% Friday), but rising VIX warns of potential gaps or swings on Monday. Watch global cues closely, as FIIs react quickly to overseas moves.

Option Chain Analysis & Market Sentiment

Option chain is one of the best tools to understand how big traders are positioning themselves for the next session.

Nifty 50 Option Chain (Near February Expiry)

From the latest Nifty derivatives snapshot:​

• Futures: Nifty February futures are trading near 25,849 with a meaningful intraday decline, still at a premium to spot, indicating there is long interest but also strong short‑term pressure.
• Call options: Contracts like NIFTY 17FEB26 26,000 CE and 27,000 CE have seen sharp price drops (for example, 26,000 CE around 44.5 after a big fall), suggesting heavy call writing or profit‑booking at higher strikes.​
• Put options: Put writers are active closer to the market, defending levels in the 25,400 - 25,200 zone, though exact strike‑wise numbers show that risk appetite has reduced compared to earlier in the month.​

Nifty PCR, Max Pain & Inferred Sentiment

• With call writing increasing at and above 25,600 and puts concentrated around lower strikes, the put‑call ratio is tilting slightly bearish to neutral, not strongly bullish.
• OI distribution suggests a max‑pain region not far from current levels, which means option sellers would prefer price to stay around the mid‑25,000 band rather than make a big directional move.​

Overall, the Nifty option chain is signalling a mildly bearish, range‑bound bias for Monday, with strong resistance overhead and cautious support below.

Bank Nifty Option Chain (Near February Expiry)

From the latest Bank Nifty data on NSE:​

• Active calls: Contracts like BANKNIFTY 24FEB26 60,700 CE and 61,000 CE are actively traded, with decent prices and volumes, marking these zones as important resistance levels.​
• Put zones: While full strike data is not listed in detail, the price action and common positioning patterns show strong interest in puts around 60,000 and 59,500, which usually act as short‑term supports when the index trades near 60,000.

The Bank Nifty option structure hints that traders are defending 60,000 on the downside but are also not willing to let the index run freely above 60,700–61,000 without resistance.

Important News, Events & Catalysts

Domestic Factors

• Index correction: Headlines on Friday clearly highlighted that Sensex fell over 1,000 points and Nifty slipped below 25,500, which can affect trader sentiment going into Monday.
• Corporate results: The earnings season is still active, with many companies across banking, IT, metals, consumer, and infra continuing to report results as per the NSE corporate calendar; this keeps stock‑specific volatility high.​

Global Factors

• Global equity performance, US market moves, and macro data will remain important cues over the weekend and on Monday morning, especially given that Indian indices are correcting from record highs.
• Any major surprise from global central banks, commodity prices, or geopolitical news can quickly change the short‑term mood on Monday.​

Stock Market Prediction for Monday – Educational View

Rather than guessing exact numbers, it is more practical to think in terms of levels, zones, and probabilities.

Nifty Outlook for Monday

• As long as Nifty stays above 25,400, the index may try to stabilise and move into a sideways range between 25,400 and 25,650–25,800.
• A firm break and close below 25,400 can extend the fall toward 25,250–25,200, where buyers may attempt a defence again.

From an educational point of view, many traders will treat 25,400 as the immediate “line in the sand” for Monday: staying above it supports a consolidation attempt, while slipping below it keeps the short‑term trend weak.

Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday

• If Bank Nifty holds above 60,000, it can try to bounce toward 60,600–60,700 and possibly 61,000 if sentiment improves.
• A sustained move below 60,000 increases the risk of a deeper slide toward 59,500, which is the next important support zone on the chart.

Because Bank Nifty has corrected less than Nifty from recent highs, traders will closely watch if banks can again become the stabilising force or if they start to underperform.

Educational Strategy Thinking (Not Advice)

In a market that has just seen a strong down day:

• Some experienced traders prefer limited‑risk option spreads (like debit spreads) instead of naked long calls or puts, to keep risk predefined if volatility spikes.
• Others shift towards range‑bound strategies only after the index clearly holds a support for at least one or two sessions; jumping into non‑directional strategies too early after a big fall can be risky.
• Many disciplined traders reduce position size after such a sharp move and wait for clearer structure rather than trying to “catch the exact bottom”.

We have created and shared above strategy in our WhatsApp Community. Click on below button to join and get these strategies!

Final Market View & Bias for Monday

Putting everything together:

• Nifty: Bias for Monday is mildly bearish to range‑bound, with 25,400 as key support and 25,650–25,800 as the main resistance zone.
• Bank Nifty: Bias is neutral to mildly bearish, with 60,000 as the key reference level; above it, the index can consolidate, while below it, 59,500 becomes the next important support.
• Sentiment: Short‑term sentiment has turned cautious after Friday’s sell‑off, but strong domestic inflows and ongoing earnings season still provide a stabilising backdrop.

For traders and investors, Monday is likely to be a day where risk management, patience, and level‑based planning matter more than aggressive prediction

Final Thoughts

Friends, putting it all together simply:

• Nifty: Bearish tilt to range-bound bias for Monday, with 25,350–25,400 as crucial support and 25,650–25,800 as immediate resistance. Hold above 25,400 suggests sideways action; break below targets 25,200.
• Bank Nifty: Neutral bias, 59,800 key support and 60,800–61,200 resistance. Banks show relative strength amid FII selling pressure.

Sentiment stays cautious: DIIs supportive (₹5,799 Cr Friday buy), FIIs aggressive sellers (₹7,431 Cr), VIX rising, options hinting range trading.

For Monday, stick to levels, watch global cues overnight, manage risk tightly, and avoid chasing swings. Discipline wins.

Stay connected with Replete Equities for informed, structured market insights — and remember, consistency is a skill built over time.

Disclaimer

This is educational content only—not investment advice, solicitation, or offer to buy/sell. Markets involve risks; always assess your finances, risk tolerance, and goals. Past performance isn't a future guarantee; opinions and projections may change without notice. No responsibility or liability for losses or damages from using this information. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized recommendations.