Stock Market Prediction for Monday (Mar 02, 2026) | Nifty, Bank Nifty Levels & Market Insights

Hello friends,

The Indian stock market just logged another volatile week, ending with a sharp loss on Friday as Nifty fell below its 200‑day moving average and erased most of its post‑Budget 2026 gains. Global cues turned risk‑off, IT and financials lagged, and traders are now reassessing near‑term support zones for the next week.

In this article, we’ll walk through the weekly stock market review, key Nifty and Bank Nifty levels, option chain data, important news and events, and an educational framework for the stock market prediction for Monday, March 2, 2026.

Weekly Stock Market Review

Indian Stock Market Today – How This Week Played Out

Nifty 50:

Nifty ended the week on a weak note, sliding sharply on Friday. The index shed about 318 points, or roughly 1.25%, to close near 25,175–25,180, slipping below its 200‑day EMA for the first time in a while. Over the week, the index gave up nearly 2%, effectively wiping out the gains it had accumulated after the Union Budget 2026 announcement.

Bank Nifty (Nifty Bank):

Bank Nifty also slipped but showed relative resilience compared to the broader index. The PSU‑heavy Bank Nifty spot is trading around the 60,500–60,700 zone, still comfortably above earlier support near 60,500. This indicates that banks are acting as a cushion even as the market corrects.

Broader Market:

The broader indices underperformed on Friday, with midcap and small‑cap themes under pressure as risk‑off sentiment picked up. The week becomes the third‑worst for Indian markets in 2026 so far, with both Sensex and Nifty posting double‑digit percentage drawdowns from their recent highs.​

What Drove Markets This Week

• The market digesting the policy impact of Budget 2026 and RBI MPC decisions from the prior weeks, with positioning now shifting from optimism to cautious profit‑booking.​
• Global risk‑off cues dominated, with overseas indices reacting to macro data and policy expectations, which influenced FII flows into Indian equities.​
• IT sector weakness remained a theme, with Nifty IT dropping sharply in February, contributing to the underperformance of tech‑heavy large‑caps.​
• Defensive pockets such as healthcare and select pharma names showed resilience as traders rotated into defensives, even as media, FMCG, and auto lagged.

Key Technical Levels & Market Bias for the Week Ahead

These reference levels are derived from this week’s high–low bands and Friday’s close.

Nifty Outlook – Key Zones

• Immediate support: Around 25,100, which is near Friday’s closing band and acts as the first line of defence for bulls.
• Stronger support: Around 24,900–24,800; a break and close below 25,100 can open the way towards 24,700–24,900 before meaningful buying interest returns.​
• Immediate resistance: Around 25,400–25,500, the area where Nifty spent much of the week before Friday’s breakdown.
• Higher resistance: Around 25,700–25,800, where call writing is visible in the options market.​

You can think of 25,100 as the “line in the sand” for Monday; above this, the market is trying to stabilise, while below it increases the risk of a deeper correction.

Bank Nifty Prediction – Key Zones

• Immediate support: Around 60,500, where put writers are concentrated and the index has previously held.
• Stronger support: Around 59,800–59,900, below which sentiment would turn more cautious.​
• Immediate resistance: Around 61,200–61,300, with the 61,500 and 61,764.85 zone serving as the outer resistance wall.

Bank Nifty still looks healthier than Nifty because it is holding above the 60,500 zone while the headline index slips below key technical levels.

Sector & Stock Performance Snapshot

Stronger Pockets

Defensives (Healthcare, Pharma):

Healthcare and pharma names outperformed as risk‑off sentiment picked up, with Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Pharma leading gains on the day. Investors migrated toward defensive, earnings‑stable businesses amid global uncertainty.

Banking (select PSU banks):
PSU banks and select large banking names provided relative stability, helping Bank Nifty stay above 60,500 even as the broader market corrected.

Softer Pockets

IT:

Nifty IT has dropped over 19% in February, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2008 according to recent reports. Infosys and other large IT names remained under pressure, reflecting global‑tech and macro concerns.

Cyclicals and Broad‑market themes:

Midcap and small‑cap indices underperformed, with selling pressure evident in several cyclically‑linked themes, especially after the week‑ending loss on Friday.​

Stock‑specific Notables

• Gainers: Defensive and some PSU‑linked names showed strength, with select PSU banks and healthcare stocks closing higher despite the broader sell‑off.
• Losers: Earlier “winner” sectors like IT and some media and FMCG names saw sharp corrections, dragging the broader index lower.

Institutional Activity Overview

FII & DII Flows – Week Snapshot

Institutional flows have become a key story over the past few sessions.

• DIIs have continued to be net buyers, with recent data showing several thousand crore of net inflows in the last week, providing cushion on sharp declines.
• FIIs/FPIs turned negative on some days, with notable outflows on 26 February and 27 February, as global risk sentiment turned cautious.

This dynamic of DII buying versus FII selling has kept the downside in check, but it has also kept the market in a consolidation–correction zone instead of a clean directional trend.

Volatility Context

The India VIX and implied option vol remain at moderate levels, consistent with a market that is correcting but not yet in panic mode. In such an environment, option premiums are not extremely cheap, which often favours more defined‑risk, spread‑type strategies over aggressive naked directional bets for many traders.

Option Chain Analysis & Market Sentiment

Options data shows where big players are defending and where they are placing their caps.

Nifty 50 Option Chain (Near‑term weekly expiry)

Based on live Nifty option‑chain data for the upcoming expiry week:

• Put side: Strong OI concentration is visible around 25,100, 25,000 and 24,900; these levels act as attractive support zones for put writers.​
• Call side: Call OI is building around 25,300–25,700, where selling pressure is likely to increase if the index retests the area.​
• PCR: The put‑call ratio sits near neutral to slightly positive, indicating that while some put writing is active, there is no extreme fear‑driven positioning yet.​
• Max Pain (approx): The max‑pain estimate for the near‑term expiry clusters around the 25,300–25,400 zone, close to where Nifty has been trading recently.​

Sentiment Takeaway – Nifty

The Nifty option chain suggests a range‑constrained, cautious bias for Monday, with 25,100–24,900 as the key support band and 25,400–25,700 as the resistance band. The market is effectively being held between these OI walls, with a stronger incentive for option sellers to keep prices near max pain rather than let them runaway.

Bank Nifty Option Chain (Near‑term weekly expiry)

Live Bank Nifty option‑chain data around the 60,700–60,800 spot level shows:

• Put side: Material OI at 60,500 and 60,500 indicates that put writers are defending this zone, treating it as a strong demand area.​
• Call side: Call OI builds at 61,000, if you 61,200 and 61,500, marking these levels as supply‑heavy caps.​
• PCR: Bank Nifty’s PCR looks neutral to mildly positive, showing that selling pressure is balanced rather than skewed toward fear.​
• Max Pain (approx): The max pain rests roughly in the 60,800–61,000 band, close to current spot, which means option sellers are comfortable with the index trading in this range.

Sentiment Takeaway – Bank Nifty

The OI structure supports a neutral to mildly bullish view for Bank Nifty, as long as it holds above 60,500. The index can grind higher towards 61,200–61,500, but fresh call writing at those levels would likely cap the upside.

Important News, Events & Catalysts

Domestic Events This Week

• Budget and policy digestion: The market is now in the phase of absorbing the impact of Budget 2026 and the RBI’s MPC stance, with sectors repricing expectations.​
• Q3 earnings: The result season continues to influence sectoral moves, with defensive and select PSU‑linked stocks showing resilience while IT and other cyclical names correct.
• Institutional flows: DII buying offsetting FII outflows is a key theme, reinforcing the view that domestic flows remain supportive even when global sentiment turns weak.

Global Events

• Global risk‑off tone: Equity indices and risk sentiment abroad turned cautious, with moves in global indices and US yields affecting FII positioning and India’s premium as an EM play.
• Macro data and policy expectations: Global growth and central‑bank‑policy narratives continue to sit in the background, keeping intraday moves sensitive to overseas cues.​

Stock Market Prediction for Monday – Educational View

Instead of giving a fixed number, here is a level‑driven, probability‑based framework for Monday’s outlook.

Nifty Outlook for Monday

• As long as Nifty holds above 25,100, the short‑term bias is cautious consolidation with scope to test 25,400–25,550 if global sentiment improves.
• A close below 25,100 increases the probability of a move towards 24,900–24,700, where the next round of defensive buying is more likely.​
• The option‑chain view (25,300–25,400 as max pain) suggests that intraday swings are likely to be pulled back toward this band, especially if the market gaps either side in the morning.

Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday

• Holding above 60,500 keeps Bank Nifty in a neutral to mildly bullish structure, with scope to revisit 61,200–61,500 if buying interest resumes.
• A sustained move below 60,500 can trigger a faster slide towards 59,800–59,900, increasing short‑term caution for banks.​
• The 60,800–61,000 band remains the “gravitational zone” for Monday due to max pain clustering there.

Strategy Thinking (Educational Only)

In a consolidation–correction environment like this, many traders focus on:

• Range‑based strategies around max pain and key OI zones (for example, around 25,300–25,400 for Nifty and 60,800–61,000 for Bank Nifty), with clearly defined risk per trade.
• Directional spreads instead of naked options, so that the maximum loss is known in advance.
• Position sizing discipline, avoiding over‑exposure on any single idea, especially when the index is trading near important support and resistance levels.

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Final Market View & Bias for Monday

• Nifty: Cautious, consolidative bias; 25,100 is the key support, and 25,400–25,550 is the resistance band. A move below 25,100 can tilt the short‑term bias more negative.
• Bank Nifty: Neutral to mildly bullish, as long as 60,500 holds; 61,200–61,500 remains the supply zone.
• Overall sentiment: Blended, with DII flows providing cushion, FII sentiment tentative, and global risk‑off in the backdrop forcing the market to trade in a tighter range.
• Focus for Monday: Watch 25,100 closely on Nifty and 60,500 on Bank Nifty as the “line in the sand.” Combine that with overnight global cues and open‑interest shifts to form a day‑to‑day trading plan.

Stay connected with Replete Equities for informed, structured market insights — and remember, consistency is a skill built over time.

Disclaimer

This is educational content only—not investment advice, solicitation, or offer to buy/sell. Markets involve risks; always assess your finances, risk tolerance, and goals. Past performance isn't a future guarantee; opinions and projections may change without notice. No responsibility or liability for losses or damages from using this information. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized recommendations.