Stock Market Prediction for Monday (Feb 23, 2026) | Nifty, Bank Nifty Levels & Market Insights

Hello friends,

Another action-packed week for Indian equity markets has come to a close. Nifty traded in a wide range, rallying early, extending mid-week, and correcting into Friday on profit-booking near resistance. Bank Nifty held its ground relatively better and continued to trade above key levels, showing strength in the banking space.

In this article, we break down the full week's story, map out key Nifty and Bank Nifty levels, decode the option chain, and build a simple educational framework for the stock market prediction for Monday, February 23, 2026.

Weekly Stock Market Review

Indian Stock Market Today – How This Week Played Out

Nifty 50:

The week began on a strong note. Monday, February 16 saw Nifty close at 25,682.75, gaining 211.65 points or 0.83%, as 35 of the 50 index constituents ended higher and buyers stepped in confidently after the previous week's volatile session.

The index then built on gains on Tuesday and Wednesday, touching the 25,750–25,850 band. However, Thursday brought a reversal; Nifty gave back a chunk of its gains, closing at 25,571.25 after trading in a range of 25,379.75 to 25,663.55.

On Friday, the index again opened lower near the 25,400 area before recovering, trading above the 25,500 mark with moderate gains supported by PSU stocks and metals.

Bank Nifty (Nifty Bank):

Bank Nifty put in an impressive showing this week. It started the week around the 60,500 mark and moved steadily higher, with the near-term February futures trading as high as 61,110.40 during Friday's session.

With the 60,500 put option carrying a comparatively low premium of just ₹280 and the 60,000 call at ₹1,196.75, it is clear that Bank Nifty spot is comfortably sitting in the 60,700–61,000 zone as the week ends.

Banking stocks were clearly a pillar of strength throughout the week.

Broader Market:

The recovery in frontline indices this week was largely a large-cap story. Midcap and small-cap pockets participated in Monday's bounce but lagged behind as the week progressed. Narrowing breadth in the latter half signals that fragility rallies driven by a handful of large caps rarely sustain.

What Drove Markets This Week

• The effects of the Union Budget 2026 and the RBI's MPC decision from the prior week continued to influence sector rotation and investor sentiment this week.​
• A strong recovery on Monday from the previous week's sell-off showed that buyers are still willing to step in on dips.
• US-Iran geopolitical tensions and mixed global cues (Nikkei -1.12%, Hang Seng -0.65%, S&P 500 -0.28% on Friday morning) kept the upside capped on Friday.
• PSU stocks — especially power, defence and metals — were consistent performers through the week, while IT stocks remained under pressure.

Key Technical Levels & Market Bias for the Week Ahead

Here are important reference zones for Monday and the coming week, derived from this week's price action and Friday's closing levels.

Nifty Outlook – Key Zones

Nifty is sitting in a broad consolidation zone between 25,380 and 25,850 as the week closes. The 25,400–25,450 band remains the key support; holding above it keeps the short-term bias positive.

A clean break below 25,380 could open the door towards 25,250 and further to 25,000–25,100. On the upside, the first meaningful hurdle is at 25,700–25,800, and beyond that the 26,000 psychological level comes into play.

25,400 is the structural floor. A decisive break exposes 25,000.

Bank Nifty Prediction – Key Zones

Bank Nifty remains technically stronger than Nifty. The 60,500 zone is now the critical support with put writers actively defending this level; it carries weight.

Below 60,500, the next strong support is around 59,800–59,900. On the upside, 61,200 and then 61,500 are the key resistance hurdles, with the all-time high of 61,764.85 (from the previous week) serving as the biggest barrier for bulls.

Sector & Stock Performance Snapshot

Stronger Pockets

PSU – Power, Defence, Metals:

Power Grid Corporation surged 4.5% on Monday on the back of a strong demand outlook for transmission infrastructure. Coal India gained 3.4% the same day on an interim dividend announcement and expectations of higher coal realisations.

Hindalco rose 3.32% by Thursday, NTPC added 2.68%, and L&T climbed 2.33% — showing that PSU names and capex-linked stocks remained investor favourites. PSU banks also rose around 1% on Friday, contributing to the positive close.

Banking & Financials:

Bank Nifty's outperformance tells its own story. SBI Life Insurance rose 1.86% on Thursday, BEL and HDFC Life also saw buying interest, and private banks like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank stayed stable. The overall banking space provided solid support to the indices throughout the week.

Softer Pockets

Information Technology:

IT was clearly the weak link this week. Infosys declined 1.21–1.23%, Tech Mahindra fell 1.35–1.75% on multiple days, HCL Technologies was down 0.76%, and TCS showed minimal gains. The pressure on IT names reflects caution around global tech spending and currency-related concerns amid ongoing US trade policy discussions.

Telecom & Auto:

Bharti Airtel slipped 0.74%, and Mahindra & Mahindra fell 0.34% on Friday. Eternal (formerly Zomato) also stayed weak, declining 0.96%–1.27%.

Noteworthy Action

Broader market breadth improved significantly on Monday but faded through the week, with Thursday and Friday showing fewer advancing stocks and more selling pressure in mid/small-cap themes. Stocks like Brainbees (FirstCry) surged over 10% on Friday, showing that select individual stocks had big moves while the index stayed range-bound.

Institutional Activity Overview

FII & DII Flows – This Week

Institutional flows this week were a mixed picture, but the broader pattern of DIIs being the net buyers continued to hold.

For February month-to-date (up to Feb 19), the FIIs are marginally net negative at around -₹1,077 crore, while the DIIs have pumped in over +₹11,474 crore, a clear signal of domestic institutional confidence.

The FII buying on Feb 17 and 18 was encouraging, but the selling on Feb 16 and 19 shows they haven't fully turned buyers yet. This inconsistent FII positioning explains the current range-bound structure.

Volatility (India VIX)

Implied volatility has stayed at moderate levels, consistent with a market that is near recent highs but not decisively breaking out. A moderate VIX keeps premiums balanced, neither suppressed nor inflated.

This generally makes non-directional and defined-risk spread strategies more practical than going big on naked directional bets.

Option Chain Analysis & Market Sentiment

Option chain data is one of the best tools to understand where big players are placing their bets and which zones the market is likely to respect.

Nifty 50 Option Chain (Near-Term Series – Feb 24 Expiry)

With the next Nifty expiry on Tuesday, February 24, 2026 (shifted from the regular schedule due to a holiday), Friday's option chain is especially important because Monday will be the last full trading day before expiry.

• Call Side: Meaningful call open interest is visible at the 25,700 and 25,800 strikes, with the 26,000 level acting as a psychological ceiling where fresh call writing has been active. These zones form a visible supply wall for Nifty heading into the expiry week.​
• Put Side: Strong put writing is visible around the 25,400 and 25,300 strikes, indicating that put sellers have confidence in defending this zone on any intraday dip. The 25,000 strike also carries meaningful OI as a far OTM "last support" level.​
• PCR (Put-Call Ratio): The PCR is hovering near the 1.0 to 1.1 range — essentially neutral to slightly positive, meaning neither extreme fear nor extreme greed is visible in positioning right now.​
• Max Pain (Approx): Given the OI distribution, max pain for the Feb 24 expiry is estimated around 25,500–25,600, which is very close to where Nifty is currently trading. This creates a gravitational bias toward that zone into expiry.

Sentiment Takeaway – Nifty

The option chain is painting a clear picture: Nifty is boxed between put writer support at 25,400 and call writer resistance at 25,700–25,800. Monday, being expiry-eve, will see accelerated theta decay, favouring range strategies. A sharp move in either direction would need a fresh catalyst.

Bank Nifty Option Chain (24 Feb Expiry)

Bank Nifty has a richer option structure this week, and the data from NSE is revealing.

• Put Side: The 61,500 PE is trading at ₹938.50, the 61,200 PE at ₹697.20, and the 60,500 PE at ₹280.40. The fact that the 60,500 put carries only ₹280 in premium — with about 4 days left — tells us spot is comfortably above 60,500 and put sellers have been active in this zone.​
• Call Side: The 60,000 CE is trading at ₹1,196.75, reflecting the fact that spot is significantly above the 60,000 level. Fresh call writing is likely active at 61,200–61,500, forming the near-term cap for Bank Nifty.​
• PCR: Considering the active put writing around 60,500 and call OI stacking up above 61,200, the PCR is above neutral, modestly bullish, but not overheated.​
• Max Pain (Approx): The OI distribution for Bank Nifty puts max pain in the 60,500–61,000 zone, broadly matching the current spot area.

Sentiment Takeaway – Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty OI structure suggests it could continue to trade inside the 60,500–61,500 band through the expiry cycle. Positioned between heavy OI clusters, Bank Nifty is likely to remain range-bound barring a fresh trigger.

The relative strength versus Nifty remains intact, making it the more stable index to track heading into the short week.

Important News, Events & Catalysts

Domestic Events This Week

• Budget & RBI Aftermath: The Indian market is still absorbing the policy implications of the Union Budget 2026 and the RBI's MPC meeting outcomes from the previous week. These two mega events together set the tone for interest rates, capital expenditure flows, and sectoral priorities for the year ahead — and their effects tend to linger for weeks, not days.​
• Corporate Earnings: The Q3 result season is in its final stretch, with several mid-cap and large-cap companies across sectors like power, metals, defence, and construction announcing numbers this week. Companies like NBCC and RHIM reported solid profit growth, adding confidence in the domestic capex story.​
• US-India Trade Dynamics: Ongoing discussions around US-India trade relationships are influencing global risk appetite and the sentiment around Indian export-oriented sectors, particularly IT and pharma.​

Global Events

• US-Iran Tensions: Fresh geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran created some risk-off sentiment in global markets on Friday, with Nikkei falling 1.12%, Hang Seng losing 0.65%, and S&P 500 slipping 0.28%. This is worth monitoring over the weekend — any escalation can affect global oil prices and emerging market flows.
• Global Markets: European indices (DAX -0.93%, FTSE -0.55%, CAC -0.36%) also closed lower on Friday, reflecting a broader risk-off tone globally. Indian markets have shown resilience against such global pressure, but a sustained global sell-off would eventually test domestic support zones.​

Upcoming Events – Next Week (Feb 23–27, 2026)

• Bank Nifty & Nifty Near-Term Expiry on Tuesday, February 24 — Monday will be the penultimate trading day before this expiry, which means options theta decay will be very high and pin risk around max pain levels will be elevated.
• Ongoing Q3 corporate result announcements across sectors will continue to drive stock-specific volatility.​
• Global developments around US trade policy and geo-political events remain on the watchlist for the week.​

Stock Market Prediction for Monday – Educational View

Instead of predicting a fixed number, here is a probability-based, level-driven educational framework for Monday.

Nifty Outlook for Monday

Nifty enters Monday in a consolidation mode between 25,380 and 25,750. Since Tuesday (February 24) is the expiry day, Monday becomes a high-theta, volatility-compression day for near-term options.

• If Nifty holds above 25,450, the path remains open toward 25,700–25,800, where strong supply exists.
• If Nifty slips below 25,380, expect a swift move toward 25,250–25,300, where the next round of buyers might step in.​
• The max pain zone of 25,500–25,600 acts like a gravitational centre for Monday — the market may keep drifting back toward this area through the session.​

Think of it this way: When a rubber band is stretched too far in either direction, it snaps back toward the centre. Monday, being expiry-eve, is a classic "rubber band" type of session around max pain levels.

Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday

Bank Nifty has a clearer bullish structure heading into Monday compared to Nifty.

• If Bank Nifty holds above 60,500: Buyers remain in control with potential for a test of 61,200, possibly higher toward the 61,500 call wall.​
• If Bank Nifty breaks below 60,500: Momentum can shift quickly toward 60,000–59,800, reversing the week's gains.​
• Monday's max pain for Bank Nifty sits near 60,500–61,000, a fairly wide zone that keeps both bulls and bears engaged.​

Since Bank Nifty expiry is also on Tuesday, Monday will likely see strong intraday swings as option sellers defend their positions aggressively in the final session before settlement.

Strategy Thinking (Educational Only)

With an expiry just one day away from Monday, the option chain dynamics change significantly:

• Theta decay is at its maximum on expiry eve. OTM options decay rapidly, favouring premium sellers absent a strong directional move.
• Range-bound strategies like iron condors or hedged strangles — placed around max pain zones (25,500 for Nifty, 60,700 for Bank Nifty) — are academically relevant in this type of environment.
• Directional spread buyers should look for clean break-and-hold signals above resistance or below support before entering, as false breakouts are common on expiry-eve sessions.
• In high-theta environments, position sizing discipline and confirmed breakouts are critical.

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Final Market View & Bias for Monday

Here is the bottom line:

• Nifty: Range-bound to cautiously positive bias. As long as 25,400 holds, expect a grind toward 25,700. Below 25,380 flips the tone bearish intraday.
• Bank Nifty: Neutral to mildly bullish. 60,500 is the critical floor; above it, 61,200–61,500 is achievable. A sustained break below 60,500 would be a warning sign.
• Overall sentiment remains mixed: strong DII support, inconsistent FII flows, cautious global cues, and expiry dynamics favour a controlled range unless disrupted by fresh news.
• Key focus for Monday: Watch the 25,400 level on Nifty and the 60,500 level on Bank Nifty as the "line in the sand." Track global overnight cues and US futures before the Indian market open for any early directional hint.

Stay connected with Replete Equities for informed, structured market insights — and remember, consistency is a skill built over time.

Disclaimer

This is educational content only—not investment advice, solicitation, or offer to buy/sell. Markets involve risks; always assess your finances, risk tolerance, and goals. Past performance isn't a future guarantee; opinions and projections may change without notice. No responsibility or liability for losses or damages from using this information. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized recommendations.