Stock Market Prediction for Monday (Dec 29, 2025) | Nifty, Bank Nifty Levels & Market Insights

Hello friends! 👋

What a balancing act this holiday week turned out to be. Nifty and Bank Nifty hovered close to record zones but slipped into a controlled corrective phase on Friday, with profit‑booking at higher levels and persistent FII selling countered by steady DII support. Despite the cool‑off, the broader trend structure remains intact as long as key supports hold, making Monday a crucial session for either a stabilization bounce or deeper mean reversion.​

Let’s walk through the weekly action, option chains, and an actionable trading roadmap for Monday and the week ahead.

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Weekly Stock Market Review

Nifty 50: Nifty spent much of the week oscillating around the 26,000–26,150 belt, briefly tagging fresh high zones before encountering supply near the upper band. Friday’s close at 26,042.30 marked a mild weekly cool‑off, but dips remained relatively shallow in the context of the prior 10%+ rally in 2025, keeping the broader uptrend intact.​

Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty closed at 59,011.35 on Friday after failing to extend beyond the 59,500–60,000 psychological supply zone, but continued to respect support around 59,000. Financials saw rotation within the pack—PSU banks and select private names stayed resilient even as profit‑booking emerged in some heavyweights.​

Sensex: Sensex mirrored Nifty’s behavior, slipping for a third session as FII outflows dragged indices off highs, yet corrections remained measured rather than panic‑driven. Market breadth swung between neutral and mildly negative through the latter half of the week as traders locked in gains into year‑end.​

What Drove This Week

• DIIs continued absorbing dips and stabilising price pressure, countering persistent FII outflows through selective buying.
• Metals and energy pockets witnessed relative strength early in the week before cooling off; IT, FMCG and select autos fluctuated without strong directional conviction.
• Rupee stability helped calm currency-linked volatility as the RBI stepped in to manage liquidity and forward premiums.
• Overall market tone showed year-end consolidation, with options data hinting at controlled ranges into the last calendar week.

Key Technical Levels & Market Bias for the Week Ahead

Use these updated levels as your working roadmap for Monday and the early part of the week.

Nifty: The 26,000–25,900 belt remains the pivotal demand zone; holding above this pocket on a closing basis keeps the door open for attempts towards 26,150–26,250 and, if global cues cooperate, a retest of the recent high band beyond 26,300. A clean break and close below 25,900, however, can trigger a deeper test towards 25,700–25,650 and invite more aggressive short‑term mean reversion.​

Bank Nifty: Sustained trade above 58,800 keeps the structure in a higher‑low territory, with 59,500–60,000 acting as the immediate magnet and psychological barrier. Only a decisive close below 58,500 would suggest that bulls are losing near‑term control, opening room toward 58,000–57,800.​

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Sector & Stock Performance Snapshot

Strong Sectors

• Metals/Energy: Benefited early from demand expectations and supportive global cues before moderating.
• Select Financials: Continued to provide structural stability to indices, especially near support bands.

Weaker Sectors

• IT / FMCG / Autos: Lacked strong directional flows due to lighter participation and global holiday-related positioning.

Noteworthy Action

Leadership rotated throughout the week rather than fading — suggesting markets remain fundamentally healthy even amid subdued volumes. Stock-specific moves in midcap financials and selective industrial names offered rotational opportunities for short-term participants.

Institutional Activity Overview

Foreign and domestic flows remained divergent, but the net liquidity backdrop stayed supportive for the market:

• FIIs: FIIs were net sellers for December with a cumulative outflow of about ₹23,830 crore, using strength to pare risk and remaining cautious amid global uncertainty. Daily data for Dec 22–24 showed FIIs consistently negative, including a net sell figure of roughly ₹1,721 crore on Dec 24, reflecting ongoing supply at higher levels.​
• DIIs: DIIs continued to be firm net buyers, with month‑to‑date buying of over ₹62,000 crore, systematically stepping in on declines. On Dec 24 alone, DIIs recorded net buying of around ₹2,532 crore, helping Nifty and Bank Nifty defend key support zones.​
• Volatility (India VIX): India VIX hovered in a compressed band closer to the lower half of its historical range, supportive for option writers but also implying that any sudden macro or policy surprise can re‑price risk quickly.​

Option Chain & Market Sentiment

Note: Exact strike‑wise OI on NSE may shift slightly intraday; the zones below are derived from latest available near‑term (Dec) data around Friday’s close.

Nifty 50 Option Chain (Near‑term Dec series)

• Max Call OI: Clustered just above spot in the 26,100–26,200 zone, which creates an immediate supply wall and marks the near‑term ceiling for Monday.​
• Max Put OI: Concentrated around the 26,000–25,900 band, with visible put writing signaling strong willingness to defend this zone as the primary floor.​
• The Nifty PCR of 0.59 (well below 1) indicates bearish sentiment and high call writing relative to puts — suggesting cautiousness or short buildup among traders, but also potential for short covering if the index stabilizes near support.
• Max Pain: Currently gravitating near the 26,100 region, suggesting an inclination toward a tight 26,000–26,200 range if no fresh trigger emerges.​

Sentiment Takeaway – Nifty

The chain reflects an evenly balanced structure, where participants are comfortable defending the vicinity of 26,000 while managing risk above 26,200–26,300. This supports a range-to-positive consolidation unless a decisive catalyst arrives.

Bank Nifty Option Chain (Near‑term Dec series)

• Max Call OI: Visible at the 60,000 and nearby overhead strikes, making this zone the immediate hurdle for a sustained breakout.​
• Max Put OI: Built around 59,000 and lower supports like 58,500, showing that options traders are prepared to defend declines toward these levels.​
• The Bank Nifty PCR of 0.72 reflects a neutral‑to‑slightly‑bearish tone, showing moderately higher call OI buildup but still some willingness among traders to defend lower supports - implying consolidation with downside bias unless fresh long positions emerge.
• Max Pain: Hovering near the 59,000-59,500 corridor, implying a tendency for prices to oscillate around this mid‑range if volatility stays contained.​

Sentiment Takeaway – Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty chain structure still favors continuation of the broader bullish trend, but with whipsaw risk between 59,000 and 60,000 as option sellers actively manage their books around these heavy strikes. Any decisive move above 60,000 with volume and follow‑through could squeeze call writers, while a sustained break below 58,500 would embolden bears for a deeper retrace.​

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IPOs, Corporate Actions & Upcoming Catalysts

IPO Radar: The mainboard and SME calendars continue to see activity, with recent and ongoing IPOs likely to keep stock‑specific volatility elevated, especially around listing days. Active primary markets tend to attract retail flows and intraday trading interest, particularly in broader market names even when indices consolidate.​

Key Events (Current & Upcoming Week):

• The coming week (around Dec 29–Jan 2) is a holiday‑light period, with reduced participation expected near the New Year break, which can amplify intraday moves in either direction.​
• Focus will be on early‑cycle Q3 result updates, global macro data prints, and any central bank commentary that could influence rate‑cut expectations and sector rotations (especially financials and rate‑sensitives).​
• Corporate action calendar items (ex‑dates and splits) highlighted for the week ahead can keep specific names like MCX and others in focus, adding pockets of isolated volatility.​

Earnings & Stock‑Specific News: While the bulk of heavy Q3 results are still ahead, any pre‑earnings guidance or sector commentary, particularly from large financials, IT, and autos, can influence index moves during an otherwise thin‑volume week.​

Monday Market Prediction & Trading Strategy

The market heads into Monday with a constructive yet fatigued undertone—uptrend still intact, but with evident signs of profit‑booking and year‑end positioning clean‑up around the highs. The base case remains a rangebound‑to‑slightly‑positive start, with dips towards the highlighted supports likely to attract buying interest as long as global cues remain stable.​

Nifty Prediction & Trading Strategy

View: Mild bullish consolidation as long as Nifty sustains above the 26,000–25,900 support band.​

Nifty Trading Plan for Monday:

• Look for intraday long opportunities on dips toward 26,000–25,950 with a tight stop just below 25,900, targeting the 26,150–26,250 resistance pocket for partial or full profit‑booking.​
• Avoid chasing gap‑up opens near 26,150–26,200; instead, consider selling out‑of‑the‑money calls or using call spreads if price stalls and option premiums remain rich, aligning with the heavy call OI overhead.​
• Fresh aggressive shorts are better reserved for a decisive close below 25,900 accompanied by weak breadth and visible put unwinding around 26,000 in the option chain.​

Bank Nifty Prediction & Trading Strategy

View: Range‑positive to bullish as long as Bank Nifty holds above 58,800, with 59,500–60,000 acting as the near‑term hurdle zone.​

BankNifty Trading Plan for Monday:

• Use intraday dips toward 59,000–58,800 for staggered long entries with stops below 58,500, looking for moves back toward 59,500–59,800 for profit‑booking or tightening of stops.​
• Near 59,800–60,000, consider partial profit‑booking, adding protective puts, or shifting to call spreads instead of naked longs, given the heavy call OI and potential for sharp reversals from psychological resistance.​
• Short setups become more attractive only on a firm break below 58,500, ideally with confirmation from rising VIX and strong call writing at lower strikes, signaling a short‑term sentiment shift.​

Options Strategy (Educational)

Given the low‑to‑moderate VIX backdrop and range‑tilted option chains around heavy OI clusters:

• Non‑directional traders can consider defined‑risk structures like iron flies or iron condors centered around 26,100 (Nifty) and 59,000–59,500 (Bank Nifty), aligning with current max‑pain zones and key OI concentrations.​
• Directional traders may prefer debit spreads—call spreads on dips toward support and put spreads on failed breakouts near resistance—to manage theta decay and event risk in this holiday‑thinned environment.​
• Position sizing and risk discipline remain crucial; avoid over‑leveraging simply because volatility appears subdued, as lower liquidity can convert minor news into outsized intraday swings.

Note: These are analytical frameworks, not recommendations.

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Final Thoughts

The market continues to reward discipline, structure and level-based observation — not aggressive forecasting. With flows balanced and volatility contained, let reference levels guide your interpretation instead of emotional reactions to noise. Be patient, respect range dynamics, and allow the market to reveal intent.

Stay connected with Replete Equities for informed, structured market insights — and remember, consistency is a skill built over time.

Disclaimer

This is educational content only—not investment advice, solicitation, or offer to buy/sell. Markets involve risks; always assess your finances, risk tolerance, and goals. Past performance isn't a future guarantee; opinions and projections may change without notice. No responsibility or liability for losses or damages from using this information. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized recommendations.