The WeeklyTrade – Best Weekly Market Newsletter [Issue -1]

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Hello Guys, I hope you are doing good. As promised I have started this weekly market newsletter today. This weekly newsletter will cover the weekly market outlook, Important levels, sector analysis, a few stock analyses, and option hedging strategies for Monthly income.

Important note: We have given a new and unique name to our weekly market newsletter. “The Options Pro” is changed to “The WeeklyTrade”.

This is the advanced version of our previous weekly articles. I have divided this newsletter into 5 parts. Every part is full of valuable information but as you know nothing is perfect so your valuable feedback is highly required.

o without wasting your time, Let’s start with our part segment i.e. Weekly Market Outlook

Weekly Market Outlook and Important levels

In this section of our weekly market newsletter. I will share the weekly market summary and try to find the trend and levels for the coming week. So read it carefully and if you have any queries feel free to type in the comment box.

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Once again Indian markets remained volatile in the week gone by and settled marginally lower, as traders remained sidelined amid the long weekend. FIIs are the net seller. Let us look at the chart to understand the trend based on the technicals:

Nifty Chart - Weekly Market Newsletter

If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that the Nifty is taking resistance from the declined trendline. That indicates that bullish trade is still waiting for a clear signal. RSI also declined in the neutral zone.

So as per the chart, there is no sign of a clear directional trend in Nifty and we may see some consolidation in a range only.

BankNifty Chart - Weekly Market Newsletter

Almost the Same setup we can see in BankNifty. Took resistance to the important level and closed near to another crucial level i.e. 37500. Now 39100 – 36100 is the Important range for BankNifty and 37500 is acting as the crucial level. This means a breakdown from 37500 will lead to 36100 and a breakout from 37500 will lead to 39100.

But personally, I suggest you should trade a range-bound strategy here instead of a directional trade. Don’t worry If you don’t know I will share one in the next section.

From the derivative front, call writers have seen at 17600 & 17700 strike and this kept markets under pressure and Nifty ended below 17500 mark.

Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 15.93% and put options closed at 16.79. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 18.16%, which was slightly lower than the previous week.

PCR OI for the week closed at 1.33. Technically both the indices are still holding well above their long-term moving averages on daily charts. However secondary oscillators suggest for furthermore consolidation in the prices at the current juncture.

In upcoming sessions, we expect Nifty to sail in the range of 17350- 17650 levels while Bank nifty may find support in the zone of 37200 to 37000 range. On the higher side, the Nifty needs to give a decisive move beyond 17700 levels for any further upside into the
prices.

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Sector analysis – Weekly Market Newsletter

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter. I will try to analyze the different sectors. We will pick 2-3 sectors that we can keep on the radar for the coming week.

Most of the sectors are giving the same setup as Nifty is giving except Energy and FMCG. In most of the sectors, we can see some profit booking from the higher levels. Although as per the chart:

NIFTY FMCG chart

FMCG Sector is trading in the reversal zone (50% – 61.8% retracement zone) but still looks promising for a bullish view. So this sector should be on your radar for a bullish view.

All the sectors like Midcaps, small caps, IT, etc are in a bearish trend and we may see some more downside levels in these sectors.

So overall tren of the market is weak and we may expect some consolidation with a downside movement.

Stocks to buy for short term today

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share a few stocks that look good for a short-term view based on purely technical. To find these stocks I’m just scanning stocks those giving a fresh breakout from their 52-week high and volumes are quite impressive. So this week’s stocks are:

1- Varun Beverages: CMP: 1030

stock to buy for short term - VBL

After consolidating in a range, Varun Beverages gave a very good breakout from its previous high. Looks good for a target of 1130 in short term. You can keep a stoploss of 920 in it. So the first stock to buy for short term today is Varun Beverages. Keep it on the radar.

2- DEEPAK Fertilisers – CMP: 680

stock to buy for short term - DEEPAKFERT

After consolidating in a range, Deepak Fertilisers gave a very good breakout from its previous high. Looks good for a target of 755 & 820 in short term. You can keep a stoploss of 580 in it. So the second stock to buy for the short term today is Deepak Fertilisers. Keep it on the radar.

3- Avadh Sugar and Energy – CMP: 830

stock to buy for short term - AVADHSUGAR

After consolidating in a range, Avadh Sugar gave a very good breakout from its previous high. Looks good for a target of 908 & 960 in short term. You can keep a stoploss of 7300 in it. So the third stock to buy for the short term today is Avadh Sugar and Energy. Keep it on the radar.

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Open Interest Analysis for the coming week

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share my view and analysis about open Interest data. We will try to find the important support, resistance and the range of market for the coming week.

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Nifty Option Chain analysis

source: Opstra

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 18000 CE & 17000 PE, followed by 17500 CE & 17200 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.47, which indicates an oversold market. PCR at 17000 stands at 6.39, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 17500 stands at 0.21, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 17200, indicating weekly expiry at 17200. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 17200 and 17000 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 17500, and 17700 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty Option Chain analysis

Banknifty open interest chart
source: Opstra

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 37000 CE & 36000 PE, followed by 38000 CE & 37000 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.59, which indicates an oversold market. PCR at 36000 stands at 3.44, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 17500 stands at 0.21, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, the important indicator “Options Pain” is at 36900, indicating weekly expiry at 36900. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on the CALL sides indicates that Nifty is facing good resistance from higher levels. Based on Option chain data, 36000 and 35500 are acting as good support levels. On the other hand 37500, and 38000 are acting as good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Weekly Options Strategies for 21st April Expiry

In this segment of our weekly market newsletter, I will share weekly option Strategies for coming expiry with adjustments. So watch this space for limited risk weekly option strategies.

Nifty weekly Option Strategy for 21st April Expiry

Nifty Weekly Option Strategy

Possible adjustments for Nifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 17000 & 17500 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 17000, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 300 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 17500. You can shift your put spread to 300 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

BankNifty weekly Option Strategy for 21st April Expiry

BankNifty Weekly Option Strategy

Possible adjustments for BankNifty weekly Option Strategy

Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 36200 & 37400 for this strategy. Means square off if you find banknifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too.

If you find that BankNifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 36200, then square off the call spread and bring it down to 800 points lower levels.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 37400. You can shift your put spread to 800 points up.


If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this also- 

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to this weekly market newsletter. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry strategy or want to deploy these hedging strategies for monthly Income, Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these Option hedging strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.



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Best Option Strategy for Intraday in Nifty and BankNifty

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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views are posted in this weekly market newsletter only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.

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Sachin Sival is the founder and CEO of Replete Equities, an options trading company that specializes in delta hedging. A self-taught trader, Sachin has a passion for volatility trading and stock trading. Sachin loves to hone his skills by reading up on new strategies and techniques as well as taking part in industry events. In addition to being a successful entrepreneur, Sachin also takes pleasure in photography - as a hobby.

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